SurveyUSA (4/25-27, likely voters, 4/11-13 in parens):
Jill Long Thompson (D): 48 (46)
Jim Schellinger (D): 36 (38)
Undecided: 16 (16)
(MoE: ±4%)
This Indianapolis Star-WTHR poll has a different take (4/23-4/24, likely voters):
Jill Long Thompson (D): 26
Jim Schellinger (D): 28
Undecided: 46
(MoE: ±4.2%)
General election match-ups:
Jim Schellinger (D): 41
Mitch Daniels (R-inc): 45Jill Long Thompson (D): 44
Mitch Daniels (R-inc): 43
and at this point I don’t think any of the polls are going to be right. There are going to be a lot of presidential driven voters who are not going to know either of the canidates. Who is going to be on the top of the ballot? Thompson or Schellinger? That could make the difference. Could people vote for one of them beacuse they are a man or a women? Beacuse they think a name sounds funny?
It’s hard to tell. Right now if I was going to predict the outcome I would give it to Jill Long Thompson by a few percentage points but it is hard to tell. I would also give the GE to Daniels by a small margin but we shall see.
It is exiting to see Indiana so competitive especially with two third tier canidates who have been going through a brusing primary.
Isn’t the second one the same Selzer & Co. poll from 4/20-4/23 you linked to previously? Am I missing something, or maybe the link is wrong?
I think the most important thing all of these polls show is that there is a case to be made against Mitch, but whoever is our candidate is going to have to aggressively make it. I’m leaning heavily towards voting for Schellinger, but could change my mind at the last minute, and won’t be unhappy at all if JLT gets it.
I could also see a general election where there is a significant amount of cross-party voting. There are three or four people I know who almost always vote for Democrats, but are solidly behind Daniels. Conversely, I’ve also heard more than a few Republicans say they are leaning (or at least strongly considering) voting Democratic in this race. If you REALLY want to find people who hate Daniels, listen to what the hard right is saying — more than a few of them see him as a corporate, moderate sell-out on social issues. With the combo of McCain and Daniels at the top of the GOP ticket here, there might be questions about how motivated those folks are. So we’ll see — while I’ve never felt more loved or paid attention to as an Indiana Democrat, I’m ready for the primaries to be over!!!
That’s the outlier in the second poll.
I think Jill Long Thompson is a slightly stronger GE candidate, and the primary outcome may indeed rest on Hillary’s result.
I really don’t think there is any way to tell.
By the way. Great work on Blue Indiana. It’s my first stop to figgure out what is going on down in Indiana!